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Fantasy fat cats and flukes
Breaking down fantasy studs and their baggage
Back in early February, twelve of ESPN's fantasy football reporters decided to rank the top five players at various positions for the 2009 season. Now, after some free-agency chips have fallen and trades have taken place, I've decided to take a look at six players who are major question marks for the upcoming season.
(Each player is ranked on 10-point scale: 1 being the least risky, 10 being extremely risky.)
It is certain this 2009 Pro Bowl QB will enter the upcoming season under a new system. Whether it be offensive guru and new head coach Josh McDaniels' system or not, there will be a learning curve for Cutler. A new team would bring many variables that make projecting Cutler's numbers for next season difficult. In Denver, Cutler would have no steady running game and there is a good possibility his beloved targets WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler won't be around, for various reasons, to catch his passes. Whether he stays or goes, next season could be bumpy.
After a record-setting year in 2007 where Brady threw 50 TD passes, he had his knee blown up in the first game of 2008. He led the Patriots to a Super Bowl appearance in 2007 as well, and now every fantasy owner has one question: "Will he be the same Tom Brady?" Assuming Brady performs up to his average, he should be good for a 3500-yard season and near 30 TD passes. Additionally, in the previous six seasons, Brady had started all 16 games for New England. Sounds reliable to me.
Another change of scenery for T.O. (now a member of the Buffalo Bills) could mean less production. Based solely on the Bills lack of a quality QB (Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman) to get T.O. the ball, he may struggle and become frustrated. But keep this in mind, in Owens' 13-year career, he has surpassed 1000-yards receiving in nine seasons and had double-digit TD catches in eight seasons. Not to mention having the ability to go the distance, or drop a pass, at any time.
This former horned frog had fantasy owners screaming at the television (not in a good way) for a good part of the 2008 season. He toted the rock less than 300 times, ran for 11 TDs and 1110 yards. The Chargers placed the franchise tag on backup Darren Sproles in the offseason. Plus, Tomlinson is 29 years old which makes him 64 in NFL running back years. Tomlinson might regain his form in 2009, but with nagging injuries and age, his best years could be behind him.
Another 2009 Pro Bowl QB pops up on our list, and his biggest question mark isn't him. Warner had the luxury of throwing to a tandem of Pro Bowl receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. But with Boldin upset about his contract (again), Warner could have one less game-breaking target next year. The good news is Warner threw twice as many TD as he did interceptions last year. Not to mention, he plays in the NFC West with three poor defensive teams.
This good ol' country boy desperately wants Tom Brady back. After a 2007 season where he set the NFL record for TD receptions in a single season (23), Moss took a small step back last season even though replacement QB Matt Cassel played well. Moss caught 29 fewer passes, had 500 fewer yards receiving, and caught 12 fewer TDs last year than in 2007. You show me the real Tom Brady, and I'll show you the real Randy Moss. I just might show you another Super Bowl too.
(Each player is ranked on 10-point scale: 1 being the least risky, 10 being extremely risky.)
1. Jay Cutler
(QB | Denver) Risk-Rank: 7It is certain this 2009 Pro Bowl QB will enter the upcoming season under a new system. Whether it be offensive guru and new head coach Josh McDaniels' system or not, there will be a learning curve for Cutler. A new team would bring many variables that make projecting Cutler's numbers for next season difficult. In Denver, Cutler would have no steady running game and there is a good possibility his beloved targets WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler won't be around, for various reasons, to catch his passes. Whether he stays or goes, next season could be bumpy.
2. Tom Brady
(QB | New England) Risk-Rank: 3After a record-setting year in 2007 where Brady threw 50 TD passes, he had his knee blown up in the first game of 2008. He led the Patriots to a Super Bowl appearance in 2007 as well, and now every fantasy owner has one question: "Will he be the same Tom Brady?" Assuming Brady performs up to his average, he should be good for a 3500-yard season and near 30 TD passes. Additionally, in the previous six seasons, Brady had started all 16 games for New England. Sounds reliable to me.
3. Terrell Owens
(WR | Buffalo) Risk-Rank: 7Another change of scenery for T.O. (now a member of the Buffalo Bills) could mean less production. Based solely on the Bills lack of a quality QB (Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman) to get T.O. the ball, he may struggle and become frustrated. But keep this in mind, in Owens' 13-year career, he has surpassed 1000-yards receiving in nine seasons and had double-digit TD catches in eight seasons. Not to mention having the ability to go the distance, or drop a pass, at any time.
4. LaDainian Tomlinson
(RB | San Diego) Risk-Rank: 9This former horned frog had fantasy owners screaming at the television (not in a good way) for a good part of the 2008 season. He toted the rock less than 300 times, ran for 11 TDs and 1110 yards. The Chargers placed the franchise tag on backup Darren Sproles in the offseason. Plus, Tomlinson is 29 years old which makes him 64 in NFL running back years. Tomlinson might regain his form in 2009, but with nagging injuries and age, his best years could be behind him.
5. Kurt Warner
(QB | Arizona) Risk-Rank: 5Another 2009 Pro Bowl QB pops up on our list, and his biggest question mark isn't him. Warner had the luxury of throwing to a tandem of Pro Bowl receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. But with Boldin upset about his contract (again), Warner could have one less game-breaking target next year. The good news is Warner threw twice as many TD as he did interceptions last year. Not to mention, he plays in the NFC West with three poor defensive teams.
6. Randy Moss
(WR | New England) Risk-Rank: 6This good ol' country boy desperately wants Tom Brady back. After a 2007 season where he set the NFL record for TD receptions in a single season (23), Moss took a small step back last season even though replacement QB Matt Cassel played well. Moss caught 29 fewer passes, had 500 fewer yards receiving, and caught 12 fewer TDs last year than in 2007. You show me the real Tom Brady, and I'll show you the real Randy Moss. I just might show you another Super Bowl too.
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