The first name in second reads.
Clayton's Five Fearless Predictions
What to watch for during tonight's Heisman Trophy presentation
C.L. Lovett makes five bold predicitions for tonight's Heisman Trophy presentation and shares who he'd cast a vote for and why .
Unlike most years, suspense will fill the air tonight in New York when the Heisman Trophy winner is announced. Here are five fearless prognostications for what will transpire during the ceremony:
5. Tim Tebow will cry before the winner is announced.
4. Tim Tebow will cry after the winner is announced.
3. Ndamukong Suh will cry all the way to the bank after finishing third in the balloting.
2. Colt McCoy will make it to the podium to accept the award, marking the first time in a week he had eluded Suh's rush.
1. Four sportswriters interviewed after the ceremony will admit they wanted to vote for Suh, but couldn't spell his name.
My vote: Heisman should be Suh's to lose
Four days before Colorado played Nebraska last month, CU coach Dan Hawkins gave voice to the conventional wisdom of the moment.
Could Ndamukong Suh, the Huskers' peerless defensive tackle, win the Heisman Trophy?
"Is he worthy of winning the Heisman?" Hawkins asked. "Yeah. Will it ever happen? No."
This was pretty much the consensus until a week ago, when Suh manhandled Texas and its Heisman hopeful quarterback, Colt McCoy, in the Big 12 championship game. The burly, agile 300-pounder split the Longhorns' double teams like cord wood, collecting 12 tackles, seven for losses, and 4 K sacks in a dominant performance.
For many who watched that game, "the most outstanding college football player in the United States for 2009" was suddenly a no-brainer.
Tonight, when they present the venerable statue in New York, a defensive tackle will sit with the running backs and quarterbacks -- Mc-Coy among them -- who make up the rest of the finalists. According to the projections, Suh has a legitimate chance to win.
But you knew there was a catch, and here it is: The Nebraska star could end up with the most firstplace votes and still not walk away with the statue. That would be because too many Heisman voters, locked into their traditional groupthink, left Suh off their ballots altogether. Mandate Media of Portland, Ore., conducts an exit poll among Heisman voters each year to project the winner. It is seven-for-seven coming into this year, having projected Carson Palmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Troy Smith, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford over the past seven years.
As of Friday afternoon, it was projecting one of the closest races in Heisman history, with Alabama running back Mark Ingram holding a narrow lead over Suh and Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, followed by quarterbacks McCoy and Tebow.
If that's the way it comes out, it will be the same old same old. No defensive lineman has ever won the award, which goes back to 1935. Forty-three running backs have.
In fact, of the 75 previous winners, only one -- Charles Woodson, in 1997 -- was a defensive player.
Think about that. In the last 75 years, "the most outstanding player in college football" has been a defensive player one time. Even if you know nothing about the law of averages, that's nonsense.
And don't think that Suh as a runner-up will give the next great defensive lineman a better chance. Hugh Green finished second to George Rogers in 1980, and it took only 29 years for another defensive lineman to contend.
There are slightly more than 900 Heisman voters. Full disclosure: I'm one. I voted for Suh, C.J. Spiller of Clemson and Gerhart, in that order. I also gave Elvis Dumervil a third-place vote in 2005, so I've been on this kick to expand the candidate pool for a while.
As of Friday afternoon, Mandate Media claimed to know the contents of 295 ballots, or nearly a third. Suh received the most first-place votes, 91, among those. The next-highest total of firstplace votes belonged to Ingram, with 68.
Nevertheless, Ingram led in total points because he was named -- in first, second or third place -- on 192 ballots, while Suh was named on only 174. In other words, Suh was trailing the total vote because he wasn't mentioned at all on more ballots than Ingram (or Gerhart, for that matter, who was named on 181).
Oddly, if the vote comes out that way, Suh's performance in the Big 12 championship game will have been enough to eliminate McCoy, but not enough to elect Suh.
"It's that old deal," Hawkins said back in November. "Defense wins championships and offense sells tickets. I just think that's the way it is. But he's certainly as good as any college football player in the country."
Topping a masterful season, Suh's performance in the Big 12 championship game didn't demonstrate merely that he was a very good player. It demonstrated that by the Heisman Trust's own language, a defensive lineman could be the most outstanding player in college football, even on the same field as the skill player previously thought to fit that description.
It was a breakthrough, which is why Ndamukong Suh deserves to break the Heisman barrier tonight. He was, in fact, college football's most outstanding player this year. And if he doesn't walk away with that statue, it will be because too many voters labor under a narrow-minded prejudice that just won't die.
Unlike most years, suspense will fill the air tonight in New York when the Heisman Trophy winner is announced. Here are five fearless prognostications for what will transpire during the ceremony:
5. Tim Tebow will cry before the winner is announced.
4. Tim Tebow will cry after the winner is announced.
3. Ndamukong Suh will cry all the way to the bank after finishing third in the balloting.
2. Colt McCoy will make it to the podium to accept the award, marking the first time in a week he had eluded Suh's rush.
1. Four sportswriters interviewed after the ceremony will admit they wanted to vote for Suh, but couldn't spell his name.
My vote: Heisman should be Suh's to lose
Four days before Colorado played Nebraska last month, CU coach Dan Hawkins gave voice to the conventional wisdom of the moment.
Could Ndamukong Suh, the Huskers' peerless defensive tackle, win the Heisman Trophy?
"Is he worthy of winning the Heisman?" Hawkins asked. "Yeah. Will it ever happen? No."
This was pretty much the consensus until a week ago, when Suh manhandled Texas and its Heisman hopeful quarterback, Colt McCoy, in the Big 12 championship game. The burly, agile 300-pounder split the Longhorns' double teams like cord wood, collecting 12 tackles, seven for losses, and 4 K sacks in a dominant performance.
For many who watched that game, "the most outstanding college football player in the United States for 2009" was suddenly a no-brainer.
Tonight, when they present the venerable statue in New York, a defensive tackle will sit with the running backs and quarterbacks -- Mc-Coy among them -- who make up the rest of the finalists. According to the projections, Suh has a legitimate chance to win.
But you knew there was a catch, and here it is: The Nebraska star could end up with the most firstplace votes and still not walk away with the statue. That would be because too many Heisman voters, locked into their traditional groupthink, left Suh off their ballots altogether. Mandate Media of Portland, Ore., conducts an exit poll among Heisman voters each year to project the winner. It is seven-for-seven coming into this year, having projected Carson Palmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Troy Smith, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford over the past seven years.
As of Friday afternoon, it was projecting one of the closest races in Heisman history, with Alabama running back Mark Ingram holding a narrow lead over Suh and Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, followed by quarterbacks McCoy and Tebow.
If that's the way it comes out, it will be the same old same old. No defensive lineman has ever won the award, which goes back to 1935. Forty-three running backs have.
In fact, of the 75 previous winners, only one -- Charles Woodson, in 1997 -- was a defensive player.
Think about that. In the last 75 years, "the most outstanding player in college football" has been a defensive player one time. Even if you know nothing about the law of averages, that's nonsense.
And don't think that Suh as a runner-up will give the next great defensive lineman a better chance. Hugh Green finished second to George Rogers in 1980, and it took only 29 years for another defensive lineman to contend.
There are slightly more than 900 Heisman voters. Full disclosure: I'm one. I voted for Suh, C.J. Spiller of Clemson and Gerhart, in that order. I also gave Elvis Dumervil a third-place vote in 2005, so I've been on this kick to expand the candidate pool for a while.
As of Friday afternoon, Mandate Media claimed to know the contents of 295 ballots, or nearly a third. Suh received the most first-place votes, 91, among those. The next-highest total of firstplace votes belonged to Ingram, with 68.
Nevertheless, Ingram led in total points because he was named -- in first, second or third place -- on 192 ballots, while Suh was named on only 174. In other words, Suh was trailing the total vote because he wasn't mentioned at all on more ballots than Ingram (or Gerhart, for that matter, who was named on 181).
Oddly, if the vote comes out that way, Suh's performance in the Big 12 championship game will have been enough to eliminate McCoy, but not enough to elect Suh.
"It's that old deal," Hawkins said back in November. "Defense wins championships and offense sells tickets. I just think that's the way it is. But he's certainly as good as any college football player in the country."
Topping a masterful season, Suh's performance in the Big 12 championship game didn't demonstrate merely that he was a very good player. It demonstrated that by the Heisman Trust's own language, a defensive lineman could be the most outstanding player in college football, even on the same field as the skill player previously thought to fit that description.
It was a breakthrough, which is why Ndamukong Suh deserves to break the Heisman barrier tonight. He was, in fact, college football's most outstanding player this year. And if he doesn't walk away with that statue, it will be because too many voters labor under a narrow-minded prejudice that just won't die.
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